Discussion about this post

User's avatar
Rewenzo's avatar

I think you're leaving out an obvious alternative Gaza option - a version of the Gaza war that the Biden administration wanted Israel to fight, i.e. just one where Israel attempts to keep the proportionality threshold more or less in line with its previous Gaza wars, proactively tries to obey international law instead of having to be bullied into it, and makes a good faith attempt to enforce the laws of war against its soldiers.

It kills less Hamas combatants, but also kills less civilians and destroys less infrastructure. I don't think it would result in any fewer hostages being returned or rescued. It and the Hezbollah war restores roughly the same measure of deterrence that exists now.

And the modest upside is (i) it ranks a little bit lower on the global atrocity index of the 21st century (ii) Israel maintains somewhat better relations with other countries and (iii) maybe there's no genocide case at the ICC.

Expand full comment
Josh's avatar

Wikipedia as a source? Seriously? Did you actually read that Lancet letter? It's transparent nonsense.

What can be said with certainty about the Israel-Gaza war?

(i) It was horrible for Hamas

(ii) It was horrible for Gazan civilians

(iii) It was horrible for Israeli hostages and their families

(iv) It was horrible for Israeli soldiers and their families

(v) Many people were killed from all of the above groups and we should be sad about all of them except (i).

(vi) War is hell. It should be avoided.

I do not accept that there is a great moral failure here, except insofar as Israel has demonstrated that it is no more saintly than other Western countries. This is upsetting to those of us who dream of Israel being a light to the nations but hardly abnormal by 21st century human standards.

In terms of strategy, it has indeed been chaotic and incoherent. The war was fought on the battleground of Hamas's choosing, fought at the time of Hamas's choosing, and while Hamas held Israel by the balls (hostages). That's a shit place to start a war and the big strategic failure was getting into that starting position. Heads should roll for that. Given the starting point, it was never going to be pretty.

Once Oct-7th had happened, however...

"Turn the other cheek" is not serious. Can you name a single other country that has done that in all of human history? Do you think America could have responded to Pearl Harbour or 9/11 with "We have seen enough blood. Nothing is to be gained by shedding more of it. Let's negotiate with Japan / Al Qaeda."?? (And Pearl Harbour was far less traumatic than Oct-7th for a host of reasons.)

Oct-7th was the start of a war that Israel had no choice but to fight and it had no choice in the primary war aim: eliminating the threat of Hamas.

In theory, a superior strategy might have been to secure a humanitarian zone in Gaza and then besiege the rest of the territory. This was my view on Oct-12-2023 prior to the ground invasion (https://bigthinkisrael.blogspot.com/2023/10/siege-is-humane-strategy.html) It sounds cleaner but might well have taken years and would Israelis have had the sang froid to stick with it when Hamas started releasing the severed fingers of hostages? Probably not.

Expand full comment
82 more comments...

No posts