Did you predict this? Well, that’s why you’re not a bigshot substacker. I’m also not a bigshot substacker, so I didn’t predict it either. If you know someone who did, then you should probably go read him, because he sounds like a smart and perspicacious analyst. Otherwise, here are my thoughts.
First of all, no mincing around, this is a really good thing. Not necessarily because it will happen, though that would be great, but because of the symbolic rejection of Palestinian nationalism. I’ve made the case before, so I shan’t belabor the point, but in a sense it can’t be said enough that the single biggest obstacle to a civilized settling of accounts in the Levant is Palestinian nationalism. This isn’t because tHERE’S nO sUCH tHING aS pALESTINIANS, but because (a) there is no feasible way of accommodating Palestinian nationalist aspirations without tremendous bloodshed and (b) Palestinian nationalism is systematically sick in roughly the same way that Japanese nationalism was in the mid 20th century. The rejection of Palestinian statehood doesn’t in itself solve any of the various logistical and moral issues involved, but it permits the beginning of the conversation about solving them. Of course, the forces of inertia behind Palestinian nationalism will take more than one speech to dissipate, but we’re only in week 3!
There’s been a lot of talk about the vibe shift in Trump 2.0 America. Maybe I’m deluding myself, but the sense I get is that Palestinian media apparatus is in disarray and doesn’t know what to do. There are two reasons why this would be the case. First, the Biden administration was the perfect target for Left activism on this front. It was basically supportive of Israel, but also squishy and palpably amenable to pressure in various small ways. The typical behaviour of the advocate thus ensued, with every real or rhetorical concession of the Biden administration whetting the appetite for more. The obvious imperviousness of Trump to all such forms of pressure takes the wind out of their sails. Secondly, the Left-Right Tuckerite anti-imperialist alliance that lived off plausible deniability during the campaign now has nowhere to go. Most of the MAGA influencers are just total grifters who, now that Trump’s position is unambiguous, will change their ‘mind’ or just talk about something else. On top of that, a lot of pro-Palestinian advocates who promoted voting Trump or not voting at all now look supernaturally dumb.
Relatedly, perhaps the most important thing about Trump is his unique ability to use mass media to tell rightoids what to think. My pet hobby horse is that people who have some kind of access should do whatever they can to get Trump to endorse things like cracking down on factory farming or promoting walkable cities, thus locking them in as right-wing orthodoxy for a generation. (This isn’t going so well). The question is how well this will work on Israeli rightoids too. At some point, Trump has to produce his deal, and the point of a deal is both sides get something. At present, Right Wing Zionism is so delirious that even the most outlandishly lopsided deal in Israel’s favour is off limits, but maybe Trump’s magic powers will create some new orthodoxy in which whatever Trump gives the Arabs was really kosher all along. My kid came home yesterday and mentioned that his teacher was rambling about not trusting the Americans because עשו שונא את יעקב, so it sounds like maybe Har haMor have already put out messaging to pre-empt that. But most Israeli rightwingers have hummus for brains and might just go with it anyway.
Trump is a real legit philosemite. He is a philosemite in the same way that he is an American patriot. The America he loves is not the shining city on the hill, still less some kind of integralist fantasy, it’s pro-wrestling, and mobbed-up unions, and gangster rappers, and Las Vegas strippers. True, unfeigned - hell unfeignable - patriotism. And, by the same token, the Jew he loves isn’t halachic man or the Buberesque wise and weary chossid, it’s the accountant who knows all the loopholes, and the dodgy slum landlord, and the corrupt Lubavitch Rabbi and the fatso who scoffs all the herring at the kiddush. Like America, he loves Jews not for what they could be, but for what they are. I myself am only very moderately philosemitic, and it took me a long time to get there. I’ll never have ahavas yisrael like Trump does. It’s a boon we don’t deserve, and it’s as well to be grateful for it.
This is obviously a vindication of Bibi’s decades-long approach of lying to everyone while kicking the can down the road and hoping something comes up. I think this was still preferable to the alternatives even if something didn’t come up, but something has come up. Of course, it would have been better had it come up two years ago, for which we have American v**ters to thank, but, overall, Bibi wins, critics to the left and right lose.
While the full plan as currently proposed seems unlikely to happen, encouraging a certain degree of voluntary emigration from Gaza is plausible. The obvious problem is that, if it’s voluntary, precisely the least mental, least depraved, and least violent Gazans will leave, and the remaining population will be even more messed up and undealable with than now. Birth rates being what they are, even the simple advantage of there being fewer of them will evaporate in a couple of decades. It would have to be really big numbers to make it worth it.
Is that enough? I think it’s enough. Share your takes in the comments!
> Relatedly, perhaps the most important thing about Trump is his unique ability to use mass media to tell rightoids what to think.
I agree this is the case, but my sense is this only works if the rightoids sufficiently plugged in to the American media ecosystem. Which usually means they're either American themselves, or terminally online. I don't even think Dutch rightoids are all that Trump-loyal. So I'm skeptical that Israeli rightoids would be much affected. But I don't know much about the Israeli media environment so who knows.
>And, by the same token, the Jew he loves isn’t halachic man or the Buberesque wise and weary chossid, it’s accountants who know all the loopholes, and dodgy slum landlords, and corrupt Lubavitch Rabbis and the fatso who eats all the herring at the kiddush.
https://x.com/cremieuxrecueil/status/1725266764844372409:
When Japan was exposed to anti-Semitic propaganda including The Protocols of the Learned Elders of Zion, they reacted positively and tried to brings Jews into their empire.