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Twilight Patriot's avatar

I appreciate your frankness on this issue. To be honest, Zionism is a topic that I very rarely talk about, since the ethnic politics of the Middle East are complicated, and I (some random American who spent a week in Israel and an afternoon in Palestine as a teenager) don't feel like I could say much about it fairly.

But I do know that America is trending left (i.e. toward the Palestinians) on this issue - I know my own generation and they are much less pro-Israel than their elders. Also I do agree that a country whose entire existence depends on a close alliance with the United States - even though the US is very far away and is supporting said country more because of ideology and inertia than because it shares a core interest - is in for a world of hurt. A few months ago I wrote a Substack article called "The Poland Paradox: How Faraway Allies Make Small Countries Less Safe." https://twilightpatriot.substack.com/p/the-poland-paradox

It's mostly about the situations in Eastern Europe and East Asia, and how the United States is making a winnable situation (the struggle by the various smaller democracies to contain Russia/China) less winnable by encouraging weakness and dependency among its putative allies - this, even though (as the Ukraine War shows) America's interest in getting directly involved if push comes to shove is very uncertain. But of course the same principle applies to Israel.

I wonder what would happen if Turkey rigged up a few hundred Bayraktar drones to fly low over the Mediterranean Sea on some dark, foggy night and drop naval mines in all of Israel's ports. If it happened today, the United States would do something awful to Turkey. But if it happened in 20 years?... (And Israel can't survive without its ports.)

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Moses Sternstein's avatar

If I understand the argument correctly, you're saying there is no universe (on any time horizon?) that "the world" could tolerate the relocation of ~2-3M Arabs.

Putting aside for a moment whether that would be a right or good outcome, what's the basis for that claim? People are "displaced" all the time. 3.7M arabs were displaced from Syria, and no one cares. 4M people were displaced across the US border, and no one particularly cares about that either (except for people in the US). The "world" has gotten comfortable with the displacement of '48 (and the various expulsions of Jews and other religious minorities by Muslim and/or African countries). No one regrets the partition of the British Raj. It's a big world, and people move. It's not without costs (and those costs can vary considerably in severity), but "people moving" is not that remarkable in the big scheme of things (and it's surely less remarkable than "people killing and maiming each other in perpetuity").

My guess is that the actual impact on the world at-large of even ~3-4M arabs moving east and/or south is basically negligible. It could happen and, if there were no front page headlines, no one would even notice or care. That would include the overwhelming majority of the Arab world itself, whose actual day-to-day life would change not-a-whit.

The point is that perception is not everything, but in this case, it's nearly everything. It's very easy to maintain false beliefs when the actual consequences of those beliefs are attenuated, but it's also easy to change beliefs, when the actual consequences of those beliefs are attenuated.

That being the case, it's not hard to imagine a set of circumstances where "people" get comfortable with the idea of relocation. "10K and a bus-ticket--and peace and prosperity for everyone. Isn't it grand?" Egypt, Jordan and Saudi are "vassals" too, in their way, and while everyone says "they'd never accept it," somehow that's considered a more insurmountable obstacle to, y'know, convincing arabs to simply accept the mantle of jewish sovereignty and experience it, day in and day out. The consensus view that "I know there's a tried and true way of resolving these conflicts, but since 'the world' says 'they won't accept at this time' we're going to go with a 'solution' that we know will only perpetuate conflict based on all our experience" does not strike me as an enduring position. It's certainly not a terribly ethical or moral one, and yet it's the current consensus, which is hope in and of itself that a better consensus can emerge.

In general, you seem wildly over-indexed to a fairly recent (and relatively short-lived) consensus about the rights and wrongs of solving this conflict (and conflict more generally). The "two-state solution" was memed into existence, despite having little or no actual purchase or relevance to the conflict. The "palestinian cause" was too, and so was Israel (although the Israel meme mattered a lot to the people involved, which is presumably why it stuck). The consensus of people without skin-in-the-game is a relatively fleeting thing, I would think, and nothing like the forever-blocker you seem to suggest.

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