Those figures are interesting, but they are calculated by subtracting OTDs from Baalei Teshuva and I'd like to see some more nitty gritty. Does some junky who becomes Breslev, goes to live in Yavniel and has 12 feral children now count as 'charedi'? I presume the answer is yes.
Once we're discussing I wanted to point out that I saw your interview on waltright and I believe you underestimated the charedi retention rate.
https://www.shoresh.institute/publication.html?id=Pub034 Figure 15 pg. 14
https://chotam.org.il/media/37347/demography-of-religiosity.pdf
So before I read that I would have said:
Chassidic outside Israel 95%
Litvish outside Israel 85%
Chassidic inside Israel 90%
Litvish in Israel 75-80%.
Those figures are interesting, but they are calculated by subtracting OTDs from Baalei Teshuva and I'd like to see some more nitty gritty. Does some junky who becomes Breslev, goes to live in Yavniel and has 12 feral children now count as 'charedi'? I presume the answer is yes.
The studies do break it up somewhat.
According to the shoresh statistics (figure 13 pg. 13) only 2% of Charedim become secular, 5% become Mesorati, and 6% dati.
According to the other study , רק % 2 (במסגרת טעות
הדגימה) עברו להיות מסורתיים לא כל כך דתיים – חילונים.
As to how to define 'Charedi' that is always a hard point. Yeah, I know you are very anti-Breslev.